First Week Wrap-Up of The Tour

The first week of racing is over, and I was gonna take the time to look back on it all.
First of all, I didn't do a review of the last two Pyrennean stages since, as far as I was concerned, they were basically the same. There was nothing decided, there was no shaking out of the GC, and there was very little drama. The reason for that is the same for both stages: The finish was too far from the last summit.
The mountains, and particularly the Pyrennes, can be very dramatic and decisive, but except for one stage, that was not the case. Yesterday, the climbs were all good ones, and the were three that were rated. But the finish was 45 clicks from the end. There was a regroupment, and those who were on the break early on survived to contest the stage, but the challengers just looked at each other.
And then today, the stage had two epic climbs in the Aspin and the Tourmalet... the latter being a pure monster of a climb. But, it was about 70 clicks from the finish... all downhill or flat. Again, everyone regouped, the leaders and the contenders and those who are place-holders (I'm looking at you, Nocentini) all finished together and nothing was decided. Nothing.
The thing is when you have the Aspin and Tourmalet together with, say, Luz Ardiden you have something awesome... they call it the ring of death. They used it in 2003, 2001, 1990 and 1986 for some amazing results. But today, those climbs were neutralized because they distance from the finish. Pro's can make up that distance, even sprinters... which is why you saw Oscar Friere leading home the main group of finishers.
When I gave my Tour preview, I said that this Tour would be awesome.... and that it would suck. This is why I said it would suck. The Pyrennes were going to have very little outcome on this race.
Why did the Tour designers do this? I think they want everyone guessing till the last big stage, the one up the Ventoux. This is why you have one summit finish in the Alps, and two that finish off the top, but not nearly as far as they did today. The guys who drew up this race wanted to have a final battle on the Ventoux, and right now it is starting to shape up that way... and that sorta sucks, because you have three weeks of so-so racing (and, let's be honest here, the Arcalis battle did not do it for me. Not at all. That should have been high drama, but the decisive attack came with only three K to go, and it did not sort out the race. The thing that stage sorted out was Cancellara, and we knew that was gonna happen.)
So, where is the GC as we enter the Rest Day? Let's go over that with a fine tooth comb and see what we have:
10) Vicenzo Nibali (Liquigas) +1:54
I think that Nibali can keep his top ten, and that would be a good result for him. Look for him to try to leap over Tony Martin for the White Jersey competition. Basically, all that Nibali has had to do is follow wheels to this point, and he has done a great job of that. He has no chance to win, but he can win this race someday in the future... like, three or four years down the road. Because he's gonna have to wait for Contador to fall off his peak form. And when that happens, there will be a lot youngsters to take his place... Nibali, Martin, Wiggins, Schleck and a kid from Colorado who might be better than all of 'em. Kid goes by the name of Phinney. Maybe you heard of him...
9) Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) +1:49
Andy has animated the group in this race, and he has proven that he could be the second best climber out there, as he was the only one able to respond to Contador at Arcalis. Andy is my prerace fave to win this race (and I really picked him because he was not named Contador or Lance) and he is in a good position for this race. This is his first year in team leadership, and I think he has hadled it well. I think he will podium in this race, and that he can win this race in the future. He has a bright future in this sport, and he has too much talent to be denied eventual greatness... just not this year.
8) Christian VandeVelde (Garmin) +1:24
Christian is where he should be, all things considered. I think he is looking to get on the podium, and so far he has shown he can follow the right wheels. His TT and TTT were solid, and he is looking to leapfrog a few guys, and I think that is totally possible. He won't win, and I don't see him ever winning this race, but he is good enough to be in the top three, maybe snag a stage win some year... maybe this year. He could animate a stage like the one to Colmar. That will be a good stage because the Colmar stage is gonna be held without radios, and it's hilly and hard and the day before a stage with a mountain finish. Lance is already pissing and moaning about the lack of radios for that stage. This is where I get annoyed with Lance.. he is too plugged in to the team car, and he is too robotic of a racer. Race radios have to go, and if things are lively on the Colmar stage, than maybe they will go.
7) Tony Martin (Columbia) +1:00
The term they use right for Tony Martin is revelation. He has been one of the revelations of this race, and you have to think that for Columbia, they are gonna rally around him, not Kim Kirchen. Tony has proven skills: Strong TT, Strong climber. He doesn't have the explosiveness of the great climbers, but for a rookie in his first Tour, he shows grace and calmness out on the road. He can podium, that's how good he is. But I mostly see him in the fourth or fifth hole, wearing the White Jersey at the end of the race. He can win this race, as he is one of the future stars of the sport, without a doubt. In two to three years, we'll be calling this the Tony Martin era...
6) Andreas Kloden (Astana) +0:54
Kloden is on the downside of his career, and his best years are behind him, but he is having a great Tour so far... mostly because he benefited from a strong TTT and ITT. Kloden will be the super domo for Astana in the last week, him and Levi. The future for both of them is the same in my opinion: On the outside looking in. Podium is attainable, but I don't see it. Basically, they have a front row seat to the greatest battle in this sport since the 86 Tour, and that's about it. Kloden will never win this race, he was caught up in the Armstrong/Contador era, and his time has come and gone.
5) Bradley Wiggins (Garmin) +0:46
What I said about Tony Martin and Nibali, you can say about this ex-trackie. He has nothing but a bright future ahead of him. The only thing to think about now for him, is how does he and CVV work it out so that they get at least one Garmin rider on the podium. They have a card to play that has to be of concern for Astana. Because of that, I again look to Colmar and think that Garmin and Columbia are both savvy enough teams to do damage there. But for Bradley now, I think that battling for the top five is a good goal. In the future, there will be a battle royal with him and four other guys, and he is someone who can come out on the top step after three weeks in July.
4) Levi Leipheimer (Astana) +0:39
What I said about Kloden you can almost cut and paste into Levi. As much as I like him, he is not gonna win this race... now or any other time. He's a great rider, but he is a guy destined to ride for other, greater riders.... like Lance, like Alberto. He can podium, that is attainable. That, of course, would secure his nickname for all time... Mr. Third Place.
3) Lance Armstrong (Astana) +0:08
Lance is starting to make a believer out of me, only in the sense that he has been there and been very strong when it counts. I still have this aching suspicion that he will blow up spectacularly at some point, and tumble all the way out of the GC... maybe to Verbier? I just have my doubts about at guy who is four years removed from this race.
But Lance will not dominate a single stage in the way he did at Sestriere in 99, or at Hautacam in 2000, or at Alpe D'Huex in 2001. Those days are over. He has lost the edge off his explosiveness on the climbs, and just barely is able to gap guys off right now... not drop them, not blow them away and totally humiliate them, not ruin their careers. But I will say this about Lance: He is the hardest man out there. Alberto is the best rider, the best climber, but he can be owned by Lance's sheer force of will and mega-ego. That is where Alberto is lacking, the killing drive to destroy on the bike. Because of this, and because the Tour is starting to look less decisive in the run up to the Ventoux, Lance can win. I don't think he does, I think he podiums. And I also think he never wins this race again, even if he comes back next year. He ain't getting any younger, the last I checked.
2) Alberto Contador (Astana) +0:06
Alberto is the best climber, the best time trialist of the climbers, and the most explosive climber. He has all the tools to win this race... unless Lance gets in his head and does some cleaning. That said, I still think he wins this race, and I think that when it's all said and done, we will say "well, of course it ended that way... did we really think it would end any other way." I also think that Alberto has two or three other good looks at this race before his climbing legs lose the Super Mario Brothers Turbo Boost effect. And when that happens, and it will, he will be a very savvy rider, and he might get by on guts and willpower alone... in the same way that Lance is right now.
1) Rinaldo Nocentini (Ag2r-La Mondial)
You know how well I know this guy? I had to flip to the results screen at cyclingnews.com threre times to get the correct spelling of his name. Nocentini is career worker bee type rider who, although he is 31, has never ridden a race till this year. He is out of his league, he has a team that is out of it's league, and he basically playing with the house money at this point. At some point in the third week, it will become crystal clear that he has been swimming in the deep end for far too long, and he will come undone in a very spectacular way... and he will tumble all the way out of the GC. This probably happens at Vittel, or Colmar, but definately at Verbier. But until then, he gets alot of PR and alot of press and his team rides at the front all day and they defend that jersey as long as they can. Rinaldo knows he's just renting it at this point....
But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he guts it out on Verbier and then delivers the ride of his life at Ventoux. But if that happens, and don't bet tomorrow's eggs on it, then it would be the most shocking upset in Tour history... greater than LeMond in 89. Greater than Periero in 06. The single biggest upset in our sport. Which is why won't happen.
this ain't the Milan High School of Hoosiers we're talking about... no super tight short-shorts and black hi-tops, as a bunch of country boys go to the wire to beat a team of future NBA players in the Indiana State Championships. The Ventoux is too long to be able to ride above your pay grade for 21 clicks, holding off the combined forces of The Dark Side.... er, Astana. At some point, you're Anaerobic Threshold takes over, your own natural wattage capacity kicks in, and you realize that you do not have the talent to pull this off... at which point he will explode like an overwound top.
But it will be a good ride until then. Soak it in, because you will never be here again. This is your career at this point, Rinaldo. This is what you will be talking about when you bounce your grandkids on your knees and point to a faded yellow jersey above the mantle.