Tuesday, July 7, 2009

The Team Time Trial

Wow... there was drama in the TTT in a way that I did not see.
I predicted an Astana win... check.
But I also predicted that LA would be in Yellow by the end of the day.... eh, not so much.
Basically, Lance and Fabian Cancellara are tied for the lead... with a fraction of a second going to Fabian. I don't know how the race officials determined that, but they did. My inner hater thinks that this was a dork move toward Lance. I would not be surprised to find out that Fabian somehow got gifted a half second. Would not surprise me a bit. Remember, the Tour organizers like Lance about as much as I like Benny Beaver (who, by the way is the mascot of Oregon State. I guess I could have gove with as much as I like *___________* but I couldn't think of anyone that I dislike as much as the Tour organizers dislike Lance. The Tour organizers, ASO, burn with dislike for him. They have done all they can to discredit his victories, to tarnish his lagacy. Of course, it doesn't help that the last time a Frenchie won the Tour was 1985... the year I graduated from high school. But I digress)
I'm also not a conspiracy theory nutjob... but this smells like a dork move.
So, here was the breakdown of the top five on the day:
1) Astana
2) Garmin
3) Saxo Bank
4) Liquigas
5) Columbia-HTC
I'm only going five deep since after fifth there was a huge drop off in terms of time.
Here's GC:
1) Cancellara (Saxo-Bank)
2) Armstrong (Astana) s.t.
3) Contador (Astana) +00:19
4) Kloden (Astana) +00:23
5) Leipheimer (Astana) +00:31
Of course, when you win the TTT, you get to lock up a large chunk of front end of the GC. Here are the significant GC challengers as of today. And it shouldn't change that much before Friday:
12) VandeVelde (Garmin) +1:16
16) Rogers (Columbia-HTC) +1:32
20) A. Schleck (Saxo-Bank) +1:41
29) Sastre (Cervelo) +2:44
35) Evans (Silence) +2:59
72) Menchov (Rabobank) +3:52
It's over for Menchov, he lossess time in bunches, and doesn't have the ability to get it back in bunches, that ain't his game. Same with Evans. These two are grinders when it comes to the mountains, they get into a gear, and they grind it all day at the same rate and they hope to wear guys down. The plus side to that kind of riding is that if you are on form, you ride hard enough that no one can attack you, and then you thump guys in the TT's. The downside is what you see now: Losing time in the TT's, without being about to make up the difference in the mountains. The greatest grinder of all time was Indurain, and he was able to grind his way to five straight Tour wins. It's an ugly, mechanical style that can be effective with the right rider. Just not this year. Other grinders on this list are Leipheimer, and Kloden. But since they will act as support riders in the mountains, their GC plans are not negotiable.... they'll be grinding away for LA and Contador, not for personal glory.
The others... LA, Alberto, Sastre, Schleck... are more explosive in the mountains, having the ability to violently change tempo in the mountains. That is why the winner will be one of those guys.
More on this stage and what to expect as we move on... I gotta take the kids swimming.

1 comments:

Adam said...

OK, couldn't agree with you more on pretty much everything you said.
1. Boonen is just another coke head, shame really.
2. Astana for the win, easy to predict.
3. LA in yellow. Should have been, but when you give the ASO only hundreds of a second to work with, of course, there is NO WAY it will EVER benefit Lance. Probably better he is not actually in yellow with so many flat stages to go. Although, it is his color.

Jan was a pretty good second place grinder don't you think? Tell Kelly, Brenda says hi.

Brenda (not Adam) although I should show him your blog, he would enjoy it as well. I could double your readership!